On April 8th, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire which was brokered by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. On the surface, it looked like the beginning of peace, but, within hours, after Israel launched its deadliest attack on Iran’s allies, it became clear that it was not designed to end the war.
In the first episode of my podcast History Nerd, I break down why I believe this ceasefire was never designed to bring peace. It was designed to create the conditions and a colonialism apologia framing, where Iran gets blamed for continuing the war.
Listen to the full episode here:
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal on X, stating it was “an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, effective immediately.” Iran agreed. France agreed. Ten European leaders agreed.
But Israel and the United States said Lebanon was not included. As reported by PBS News, President Trump called Lebanon “a separate skirmish.”
Hours later, Israel launched what it called Operation Eternal Darkness. Fifty fighter jets. Over 100 targets struck in 10 minutes. At least 254 people killed in Lebanon in a single day, according to the Lebanese Civil Defence.
This was the deadliest day in Lebanon since the war began. It happened on the same day as a ceasefire.
Now, the time to frame it.
Vice President JD Vance called the dispute a “legitimate misunderstanding.” As reported by CBS News, he said: “If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart, in a conflict where they were getting hammered, over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that’s ultimately their choice. We think that would be dumb, but that’s their choice.“
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded on X: “The US must choose: ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.”
The logic of the trap is straightforward. Iran says the ceasefire covers Lebanon. Israel bombs Lebanon. This leaves Iran with two choices: stay silent while its ally is destroyed, or respond and get blamed for ending the ceasefire. Either way, the narrative has already been written.
Why the world will turn against Iran
Iran’s main leverage has been the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through it. When Iran closes the strait, oil prices spike globally. But that leverage comes at a cost.
The GCC countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, depend on the Strait for their exports. Countries across Asia, Africa, and Europe depend on oil flowing through it.
If the ceasefire collapses and Iran closes Hormuz again, which eventually they did, the economic pain will hit everyone.
Food prices will rise. Transport costs will soar high. The whole world will come to a halt. And when people suffer, they look for someone to blame.
The framing to blame is ready. The United States agreed to a ceasefire. Iran broke it. The world is running out of oil because of Iran.
This is the same justification pattern that has been used throughout history. Africa was colonised under the three Cs: Christianity, commerce, and civilisation. NATO’s interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan were justified as restoring democracy and human rights.
Professor Jiang, who has been one of the sharpest commentators on this war, explained that once that narrative takes hold, even countries that currently support Iran (China and Russia) or stay neutral will face pressure to turn against it.
Russia and China both feel the economic strain of disrupted oil markets. GCC nations that have maintained quiet ties with Tehran will have every reason to side with whoever reopens the oil supply.
This video explains further about the Ceasefire trap by the US and Israel.
If it is peace, why send more troops?
On the same day as the ceasefire, Trump posted on Truth Social that all US military personnel would remain “in place, in and around Iran.”
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said, US forces would be “hanging around” and warned of strikes on “power plants, bridges, and oil and energy infrastructure” if Iran did not comply.
As reported by The Hill, the USS George H.W. Bush was deployed with over 6,000 sailors, 2,500 Marines had arrived aboard the USS Tripoli, and 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division were sent to the region. This is the largest US military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
What comes next
Talks are set to begin in Islamabad. The US delegation will be led by Vice President Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as reported by ABC News. Iran says it will send a delegation. But the contradictions in this deal remain.
Israel has said it will not stop attacking Lebanon. Iran has said it will not accept that.
In Episode 2 of History Nerd, I will examine who actually benefits from this war continuing, and why Iran’s military structure makes a ceasefire nearly impossible.
I will also talk about the Greater Israel project, where Israel will capture other Middle Eastern countries to create the Greater Israel Project.
Till then, stay tune!
You can listen to this podcast by Tucker Carlson to know more about The Greater Israel Project.
