According to Nate Silver, founder statistician of FiveThirtyEight: “Nearly 158 million voters are expected to vote this year, compared to 137 million in 2016”.
No doubt that this election is like no others. Between the big protestations of the social movement “Black Lives Matter” or the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic which hit the country, the United States of America is on the verge of chaos. Surprisingly, Americans voters participation reach a record this year and become the highest one since 1900.
Tuesday, November 3, 2020, was the last day for Americans to vote for their future president to the coming 4 years. Choose between Joe Biden, representing the Democrats (left-wing) and Donald Trump, representing the Republicans (right-wing). So the question is now: Who would benefits of this situation of chaos and highest participation?
It seems to be Joe Biden. Indeed, electors are more and more considering that what happens nowadays all around the country was caused by bad management of Donald Trump. That is why the democratic candidate was announced across the Atlantic like the big favourite even before the vote have taken place. Biden even said during a speech on Wednesday, November 4: “We believe we will be the winners”. This is only a question of hours to see the ex-vice president of Barack Obama becomes the 46th President of the United States.
The Electoral College, key of the election
On last few days, you can see everywhere, on all websites or social networks: “Joe Biden 264 – Trump 214“. However, what do really means those numbers? It corresponds at the Electoral College of the United States which refers to the group of presidential electors that is form every four years for electing the president and vice-president. Concretely, 264 is the number of presidential electors that Biden has won (at the moment).
Let’s try to understand how do both candidates get those scores and why are they so important.
Like said in the video, candidates have to get at least 270 presidential electors to be named President of the United States. Nevertheless, despite the wide lead of Joe Biden, some people are considering a smashing return of Donald Trump and possible draw. In that case, the American constitution is clear: the United States House of Representatives has to elect the future president. Representatives are grouped by state, and each state represents one vote and the first candidate to win 26 votes is elected.
“If this scenario were to happen, the Republicans would probably benefit”, Alexander Burns, a political journalist for the New York Times. Even if the Democrats hold the majority in the House of Representatives, because they are established in the most populous states, the Republicans occupy the biggest number of states in total.
Concerning the vice-president, he will be elected by the Senate. The 100 senators will vote individually to nominate him. Since the Senate is currently with a Republican majority, Mike Pence (Donald Trump’s vice-president), would be normally re-elected. Such a situation has not happened since 1800.